Email me at DavidFord@tamu.edu for copies of papers for which there are no links or simulation models.
Peer Reviewed Journal Articles (unless noted otherwise)
- Bruce Keith, DN Ford, and R. Horton (2017) “Considerations in managing the fill rate of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Reservoir using a system dynamics approach” Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.
- Jalili, Yasaman and Ford DN (2016) “Quantifying the impacts of rework, schedule pressure, and ripple effects loops on project schedule performance” System Dynamics Review. 32 (1): 82-96. Jan-Mar, 2016. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.
- Damnjanovic, Ivan, S. Johnson, and Ford DN (2016) “Financial Stress testing of toll Road Projects: The effect of feedback loop dynamics” The Journal of Structures Finance. 21 (4):51-64, Winter, 2016. DOI:10.3905/jsf.2016.2016,1.047.Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.
- Keith B and David DN. (2016), “Dynamic Feedback Theory of Community Recovery from Shock Events: Testing the Role of Social Capital”. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.
- Faghihi, Vahid, Hessami, A and Ford, DN (2015), “Sustainability Improvement Program Design Using Energy Efficiency Improvement and conservation”. Journal of Cleaner Production. 107: 400-409. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.
- Ford, David N, I. Damnjanovic, and S. Johnson. “Public-Private Partnerships: A Study of Risk Allocation Design Envelopes” . Governance in the Information Era: Theory and Practice of Policy Informatics. Erik Johnston, Ed. Routledge Press. New York. 2015. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this book chapter.
- Angelis, D., Ford, DN, and Dillard, J. “Real options in military acquisition: the case study of technology development for the Kingfish Unmanned Underwater Vehicle”, Military Cost-Benefit Analysis: Theory & Practice. Francois Melese, Ed. Routledge Press (Taylor and Frances). New York. 2015. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.
- Angelis, Diana I, DN Ford, and J. Dillard, (2015) “Real Options in military Systems Acquisition: A Retrospective Case Study of the Javelin Anti-Tank Missile System” accepted in Francois Melese, A. Richter, and B. Solomon (Eds.) Military Cost-Benefit Analysis: Theory & Practice. Routledge Press (Taylor and Francis). New York. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.
- Angelis, D., Ford, D.N, and Dillard, J. Valuation of Real Options as Competitive Prototyping in System Development, Defense Acquisition Research Journal. Vol. 21, Issue, 3, pp. 668-694. July, 2014.
- Faghihi, Vahid, Hessami, A. and Ford, D.N. Sustainable campus improvement program design using energy efficiency and conservation. Journal of Cleaner Production. in press (2014): published on line December, 2014.
- Ford, D.N and MR Nosbisch. “An Industry/Academia Partnership for Construction Project Control Education”. Cost Engineering. March/April, 2013. pp. 34-39. Click here to download the published paper.
- White, Robert and Ford, D.N. “Dynamic Drivers of Successful Social Impact Bonds”. Proceedings of the System Dynamics Conference. Cambridge, MA. 2013. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.
- Garvin, M. and Ford, D.N. Real Options in Infrastructure Projects: Theory, Practice and Prospects Engineering Project Organization Journal. 2, Issue 1-2. Pp. 97-108. Jan 24, 2012.
- Taylor, TRB, Ford, D.N., Reinschmidt, K. “The impact of public policy and societal risk perception on U.S. civilian nuclear power plant construction”. ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. Vol. 138, No. 8, August 2012: 972-981. Click here to download the published paper. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of the model.
- Ford,D.N. and Lander, DM, Real option perceptions among project managers Risk Management, An International Journal. 13, No. 3, pp. 122-146. 2011.
- Taylor, TRB., Ford, D.N., Yvon-Lewis, S., and Lindquist, E. Science, engineering, and technology in the policy process for mitigating natural-societal risk. System Dynamics Review. 27(2):173-194. April-June, 2011.
- Taylor, T. R. B., Ford, D. N. and Ford, A. Improving model understanding using statistical screening System Dynamics Review. 26(1): 73-87. Jan-March, 2010Notes:
1) This paper was the fourth most accessed article in the System Dynamics Review from the on-line web page as of May, 2011.
2) Click here for a copy of the original statistical screening paper by Dr. A. Ford and H. Flynn that appeared in System Dynamics Review.
3) The conference paper “Model Analysis using Statistical Screening, Clarifications and Extensions” by the same authors was published in the Proceedings of 2007 International System Dynamics Conference, Boston, Ma. July 22-26, 2007. It includes more example applications and detailed instructions for applying statistical screening. Click here to download the published conference paper.
4) The spreadsheet tool in different sizes to suit Statistical Scanning of models of different sizes are available here. The first number is the number of inputs. The second number is the number of simulation runs. The third number is the number of saved periods in each run.
6 x 50 x 20 | 6 x 50 x 40 | 6 x 100 x 100 |
6 x 200 x 100 | 14 x 50 x 40 | 14 x 100 x 200 |
14 x 200 x 200 | 14 x 1000 x 200 | 72 x 1000 x 200 |
- Hovmand, P.S., and Ford, D.N. “Computer Simulation of Innovation Implementation Strategies” in Rossetti MD, Hill RR, Johansson B., Dunkin A., and Ingalls, RG, (Eds.) Proceedings of the 2009 Winter Simulation Conference. Austin, Tx. Click here to download the published paper.
- Ford, D.N. and Garvin, M. “Barriers to Real Options Adoption and Use in AEC Project Management Practice” Chapter 7 in Harriet Black Nembhard (Ed.) Real Options in Engineering Design, Operations, and Management. CRC Press 2009. Click here to download a later version of this chapter.
- Ford, D.N. and Dillard J “Modeling Open Architecture and Evolutionary Acquisition: Implementation Lessons from the ARCI Program for the Rapid Capacity Insertion Process” Acquisition Research Program. Naval Postgraduate School. Monterey, Ca. Report #NPS-AM-09-043. April 22, 2009. Click here to download the full report that is the basis for this paper.
- Ford, D.N. and Dillard J. “The Logistics Support Resource Strategy Map: A Design and Assessment Tool” Acquisition Research Program. Naval Postgraduate School. Monterey, Ca. Report #NPS-AM-09-021. April 22,, 2009. Click here to download the full report that is the basis for this paper.
- Dillard J and Ford, D.N. “From Amorphous to Defined: Balancing the Risks of Evolutionary Acquisition” Defense Acquisition Review Journal. Vol. 16, No. 5, pp. 236-52. Oct. 2009. Click here to download the published paper.
- Ford, D.N. and Dillard J. “Modeling the Performance and Risks of Evolutionary Acquisition” Defense Acquisition Review Journal. 16(2):143-158. July, 2009. Click here to download the published paper.
- Hovmand, PS and Ford, D.N. “Sequence and Timing of Three Community Interventions to Domestic Violence” American Journal of Community Psychology. 44(1-2):261-72, September, 2009.
- Hovmand, PS, Ford, D.N., Flom, I., and Kyriakakis, S., Victims Arrested for Domestic Assault: Unintended Consequences of Arrest Policies. System Dynamics Review. 25(3):161-181. July-Sept., 2009.
- Taylor, T. and Ford, D.N. Managing Tipping Point Dynamics in Complex Construction Projects ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. Vol. 134, No. 6, pp. 421-431. June, 2008. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of the model.
- Ford, D.N. and Andersen, JM. Risk-Aversion in Water Allocation Policies in Semi-Arid Regions Systems Research and Behavioral Science. 25:769-782. Nov-Dec., 2008.
- Ford, D.N. and Dillard, JT “Modeling the Integration of Open Systems and Evolutionary Acquisition in DoD Programs” 5th Acquisition Research Symposium. Naval Postgraduate School. Monterey, Ca. May 14-15, 2008. Click here to download the research report.
- Quiroga, C., Ford, D.N., Taylor, T, Kranc, S., and Kraus, E. “Construction Specification Framework for Utility Installations” Transportation Research Record, Journal of the Transportation Research Board. 2060: 162-172. 2008. Click here to download the published paper.
- Lyneis, J. M. and Ford, D.N., Taylor, TR. “Project Controls to Minimize Cost and Schedule Overruns: A Model, Research Agenda, and Initial Results”. Proceedings of the 2007 International System Dynamics Conference, Boston, Ma. July 23-27, 2007. Click here to download the published paper.
- Lyneis, J.M. and Ford, D.N, System Dynamics Applied to Project Management: A Survey, Assessment, and Directions for Future Research. System Dynamics Review. Vol 23, No. 2/3 (Sumer/Fall 2007). pp. 157 – 189. NOTE: This paper was the most-cited paper in the System Dynamics Review in 2008.
- Lee, Z, Ford, D.N. and Joglekar, N. Effects of Resource Allocation Policy Design for Reducing Project Durations: A Systems Modeling Approach Systems Research and Behavioral Science. Vol. 24, No. 6, pp. 551 to 566. Nov-Dec 2007. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of the model. The model used in this paper uses relatively simple project work flow sectors and focuses on the resource sectors. It uses output from a control theory model developed by Prof. Joglekar.
- Cao, Q., Ford, D.N. and Leggio, K. (2007) “The Application of Real Options to the R&D Outsourcing Decision”, Chapter 2 in Schniederjans, M. Schniederjans, A. Schniederjans, D. (Eds.), Outsourcing Management Information Systems. Click here to download the published chapter from this book.
- Johnson, S., Taylor, T, and Ford, D.N. “Using System Dynamics to Extend Real Options Use: Insights from the Oil & Gas Industry” 2006 International System Dynamics Conference, Nijmegan, The Netherlands. July 23-27, 2006. Click here to download the final version of this paper.
- Ford, D.N. and Bhargav, S Project Management Quality and the Value of Flexible Strategies Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management, Vol. 13, No. 3.pp. 275-289. Spring, 2006.
Note: This paper was the winner of a “Highly Commended” Award of Excellence from Emerald LiteratiNetwork 2007.
- Kristensen, V., Aven, T. and Ford, D.N. A new perspective on Renn & Klinke’s approach to risk evaluation and management Reliability Engineering and System Safety Journal. March, 2005.
- Taylor, T. and Ford, D.N. Tipping Point Failure and Robustness in Single Development Projects System Dynamics Review. Vol. 22, No. 1. pp. 51-71. Spring, 2006. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of the model.
- White N. and David D.N., (2006) “An illustrative Case of Ethical issues Arising on Construction Projects,” The American Professional Constructor, Journal of the American Institute of Constructors. 29 (1): 46-51. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.
- Ford, D.N. and Sobek, D.N. Adapting real options to new product development by modeling the second Toyota Paradox IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management. Vol. 52, No. 2, pp. 1-11. May, 2005.
- Sandøy, M., Aven, T. and Ford, D.N. On integrating risk perspectives in project management Risk Management, an international journal. Vol. 7, pp. 7-21. , 2005.
- Yanzhen, W. and Ford, D.N. “Perceptions of Real Options in Large System Acquisition: Empirical Descriptions and Comparison with Theory” Proceedings of the 2nd Annual Acquisition Research Symposium. May 18-19, 2005. Click here to download the final version of this paper.
- Joglekar, N. and Ford, D.N., Product Development Resource Allocation with Foresight European Journal of Operational Research. Vol. 160 No. 1, pp.72-87. Jan., 2005. Note: The model used in this paper uses relatively simple project work flow sectors and focuses on the resource sectors. It takes input from a control theory model developed by Prof. Joglekar. Email me at DavidFord@tamu.edu for a copy of the system dynamics model (Vensim format).
- Ford, D.N., Lander, D. and Voyer, J., “Business Strategy and Real Options in the Context of Large Engineering Projects,” Journal of Global Competitiveness. 12 (1): 1-9. 2004. Click here to download the published paper.
- Alessandri, T., Ford, D.N., Lander, D. Leggio, K., and Taylor, M., Managing risk and uncertainty in complex capital projects Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance. 44(5): 751-767.
- Ford, D.N., Anderson, S., Damron, A., de Las Casas, R., Gokmen, N. and Kuennen, S., Managing Constructability Reviews to Reduce Highway Project Durations ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. Vol. 130, No. 1, pp. 33-42. January, 2004. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of the model. The model used in this paper is relatively small (less than a couple dozen stocks).
- De Lapp, J., Ford, D.N., Bryant, J., and Horlen, J. “Impacts of CAD on Iteration in Design Realization” Engineering, Construction and Architectural Management. 11(4): 284-291. Click here to download the published paper.
- Ford, D.N. and Sterman, J. The Liar’s Club: Impacts of Concealment in Concurrent Development Projects Concurrent Engineering Research and Applications. Vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 211-219, Sept., 2003. Note: The model for this paper and the 90% Syndrome paper (Ford and Sterman 2003) is larger and more complex (i.e. includes coflows and multiple dependent project phases). In addition to the model itself the save lists and control files are needed to model concurrence and concealment.
- Ford, D.N. and Sterman, J. Overcoming the 90% Syndrome: Iteration Management in Concurrent Development Projects Concurrent Engineering Research and Applications. Vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 177-186, Sept., 2003. Note: The model for this paper and the Liar’s Club paper (Ford and Sterman 2003) is larger and more complex (i.e. includes coflows and multiple dependent project phases). In addition to the model itself the save lists and control files are needed to model concurrence and concealment.
- Ceylan, K. and Ford, D.N. and, “Using Options to Manage Dynamic Uncertainty in Acquisition Projects,” Acquisition Review Quarterly, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 243-258, Fall, 2002. Click here to download the published paper.
- Ford, D.N., Lander, D.N. and Voyer, J. A Real Options Approach to Valuing Strategic Flexibility in Uncertain Construction Projects Construction Management and Economics. 20(4): 343-351. June, 2002.
- Ford, D.N. Achieving Multiple Project Objectives through Contingency Management. ASCE Journal of Construction Engineering and Management. 128(1): 30-39. February, 2002. Note: The model used in this paper is relatively small (less than a couple dozen stocks).
- Doyle, J. K., Ford, D. N., Radzicki, M. J., and Trees, W. S. (2002). Mental models of dynamic systems, in System Dynamics and Integrated Modeling, edited by Y. Barlas, from Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems (EOLSS). Click here to download the published paper.
- Ford, D.N. Voyer, J. and Wilkinson, J. Building Learning Organizations In Engineering Cultures: A Case Study ASCE Journal of Management in Engineering. 16(4), 72-83. July/Aug., 2000.
- Ford, D.N. and McCormack, D. “Impacts of Time-Scale Focus on System Understanding in Decision Support Systems”. Simulation and Gaming, An Interdisciplinary Journal of Theory, Practice, and Research. 31(3), 309-330. Sept., 2000. Click here to download the published paper. Note: The model used for this paper is a standard Kaibab Plateau model that is available in the system dynamics literature. The version we built and used was in Powersim.
- Ford, D.N. A Behavioral Approach to Feedback Loop Dominance Analysis. System Dynamics Review. 15(1): 3-36. Spring, 1999.
- Doyle, J. and Ford, D.N. Mental Model Concepts Revisited: Some Clarifications and a Reply to Lane. System Dynamics Review. 15(4): 411-415. Winter, 1999.
- Ford, D.N. “The Application of System Dynamics to Concurrent Engineering,” INSIGHT. International Council on Systems Engineering. Vol. 2, No. 3, pp. 20 – 23, Fall, 1999. Click here to download the published paper.
- Ford, D.N. and Sterman, J. Dynamic Modeling of Product Development Processes. System Dynamics Review. 14(1): 31-68. Spring, 1998.
- Ford, D.N. and Sterman, J. Expert Knowledge Elicitation for Improving Formal and Mental Models. System Dynamics Review. 14(4): 309-340. Winter, 1998.
- Doyle, J. and Ford, D.N. Mental Model Concepts for System Dynamics Research. System Dynamics Review. 14(1): 23-29. 1998. Spring, 1998. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this book chapter.
- Ford, D.N. “System Dynamics as a Strategy for Learning to Learn”. Proceedings of the International System Dynamics Conference. Quebec, Canada. July 20-23, 1998. Click here for a downloadable version of this paper (pdf format).
- Voyer, J., Gould, J. and Ford, D.N. “Systematic Creation of Organizational Anxiety: An Empirical Study”. Journal of Applied Behavioral Science. 33(4): 471-489. 1997. December, 1997. Click here to download the published paper.
- Voyer, J, Gould, J. and Ford, D.N. “Anxiety in the Workplace, Using Systems Thinking to Deepen Understanding”. Innovations in Management Series. Pegasus Communications. Waltham, MA. 1997. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.
- Ford, D.N. Impacts of Product Development Process Structure on Cycle Time and Project Manageability. Proceedings of the Third International Product Development Conference, European Institute for Advanced Studies in Management, Fountainebleau, France. April 13-16, 1996. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.
- Ford, D.N. and Paynting, R. “Linking Academic Theory and Industry Practice with Student Interactive Projects”. The Center for Quality Management Journal. 4(2): 19-32. 1995. Spring, 1995. Click here to download the published paper.
- Ford, D.N. “Karl Terzaghi, Engineer,” “Lillian Gibreth, Engineer,” “Frank Gilbreth, Engineer,” “Cyril Harris, Physicist and Engineer,” “Charles F. Kettering, Inventor,” “Felix Wankel, Inventor,” “Edward Witten, Mathematical Physicist.” essays in McMurray, Emily and Olendorf, Donna (Eds.) Notable Twentieth Century Scientists.Gale Research. Detroit, MI. 1995.
- Ford, D.N. The Dynamics of Project Management: An Investigation of the Impacts of Project Process and Coordination on Performance. doctoral dissertation. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA. 1995.
Chapter 1 | Chapter 2 | Chapter 3a | Chapter 3b |
Chapter 4 | Chapter 5a | Chapter 5b | Chapter 6 |
The model was written in Dynamo equations that were imported into S**4 to run. So the model is available, but not nearly as easy to use as subsequent models listed above.
- Ford, D.N. “MGM Grand Hotel Fire” in Neil Schlager (Ed.) When Technology Fails. 307-312. Gale Research. Detroit, MI. 1994. Click here to download the published essay.
- Ford, D.N. “Ferrybridge Cooling Tower Collapse”. in Neil Schlager (Ed.) When Technology Fails. 267-271. Gale Research. Detroit, MI. 1994. Click here to download the published essay.
- Ford, D.N., Hou, A. and Seville, D. “An Exploration of Systems Product Development at Gadget Inc.” Report D-4460. System Dynamics Group, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA. 1993. Contact me at the email address above for a copy of this paper.